CONFLICTS IN WEST ASIA 

2. Escalation of the Israel-Hamas Conflict

• When Israel initiated its military campaign in Gaza in response to Hamas's cross-border attack on October 7, resulting in the death of at least 1,200 Israelis, concerns arose about the conflict extending beyond Palestine.
• Hezbollah, a Lebanese Shia group supported by Iran, expressed solidarity with the Palestinians by launching rockets at Israeli forces in the Shebaa Farms. Despite intermittent exchanges of fire between Hezbollah and Israel, both parties sought to prevent tensions from escalating into a full-blown war.
• Arab nations, critical of Israel's indiscriminate bombing, pursued diplomatic channels to exert pressure. Meanwhile, Iran-backed militias, such as the Houthis in Yemen, targeted commercial vessels in the Red Sea, disrupting maritime traffic in "solidarity with the Palestinians."
• As Houthi attacks endangered Red Sea navigation, the U.S., supporting Israel, conducted airstrikes in Yemen against Houthi positions. This triggered over 100 attacks by Hashad al-Shabi, Shia Mobilisation Forces of Iraq and Syria backed by Iran, on U.S. troops in both countries.
• In retaliation, the U.S. carried out airstrikes in Syria and killed a Hashad al-Shabi commander in Baghdad, leading to protests in Iraq. Israel, amid regional instability, conducted multiple strikes in Syria and Lebanon, targeting Hamas, Hezbollah, and Iranian commanders.
• Amid growing pressure, the Islamic State targeted a memorial event for Qassem Soleimani, an Iranian general assassinated by the U.S. in January 2020. Iran responded by carrying out strikes in Iraq's Kurdistan, Syria, and Pakistan on January 16, claiming to hit a Mossad operational centre and Sunni Islamist militants. In retaliation, Pakistan conducted airstrikes in Iran on January 18.

3. Key Players in the Crisis

• Israel asserts its right to attack Gaza until it achieves specific goals, including the dismantling of Hamas and the release of hostages. The Israeli perspective frames the conflict as a vengeful war on the Palestinians, with full support from the United States.
• Iran plays a pivotal role as the main supporter of various anti-Israel non-state actors in West Asia. This support extends to groups such as Hamas, the Islamic Jihad, Hezbollah, Houthis, and Shia militias in Iraq and Syria. Iran seeks to strengthen its deterrence in the region.
• The United States, with a significant military presence in the area, pursues three main objectives. These include ensuring the security of Israel, safeguarding American troops and assets deployed in the region, and maintaining the U.S.-led order in West Asia. The U.S. actively supports Israel in the ongoing conflict and conducts operations against Iran-backed proxies to meet its strategic goals.

4. Unstable Regional Dynamics

• The current situation in West Asia represents a departure from past conflicts, which often involved nation-states or state-non-state actor dynamics. While historical conflicts, such as the Iran-Iraq and Israel-Arab wars, were contained, the ongoing crisis features a broader and more complex security challenge.
• In contrast to the brief 1967 transnational war, the present conflict, extending over 100 days, continues to escalate and widen. The instability is characterized by a combination of powerful states and non-state actors, making it a widespread security crisis.
• The longstanding U.S. dominance in West Asia, influencing geopolitical outcomes, has been a stabilizing force. However, the current crisis signals a breakdown of the old order. Iran-backed proxies directly target both Israeli and American positions, challenging the previously established red lines.
• Arab countries, traditional allies of the U.S., are expressing growing frustration with Washington's unwavering support for Israel in the Gaza conflict. The crisis has strained alliances, and the U.S. appears unable or unwilling to influence Israel to halt its prolonged military campaign.
• The inability to end the protracted conflict, coupled with confrontations with Shia militias, positions the U.S. as a disruptor in the region. Instead of serving as a guarantor of peace, stability, and deterrence, the world's most powerful country is contributing to the ongoing disruptions in West Asia.

5. Prolonged Conflict and Uncertain Future

• After over 100 days of conflict, Israel's military campaign in Gaza has yielded limited results, and there is no apparent resolution in sight. The offensive is unlikely to de-escalate in the immediate future.
• As long as Israel persists in its military actions, groups like Hezbollah and the Houthis are expected to continue their attacks. The effectiveness of U.S. airstrikes on the Houthis remains uncertain, and previous strikes in Iraq and Syria have not deterred Shia units from launching new attacks.
• The extended instability may create opportunities for extremist groups like the Islamic State to exploit the situation. Iraq and Syria, already vulnerable to internal and external challenges, could face heightened threats.
• Iran's efforts to project military force face limitations, as highlighted by Pakistan's response. The U.S., once influential in shaping outcomes in West Asia, now observes the region descending into chaos.
• Amid the crisis, a potential silver lining is the holding of the Saudi-Iran detente. The associated Saudi-Houthi peace appears to be maintaining stability, offering a glimmer of hope amid the broader spiral of crisis.

6. The Way Forward

The future remains uncertain, with a prolonged conflict in Gaza, continuous regional tensions, and the potential for further instability. The only positive aspect, for now, is the stability maintained by the Saudi-Iran detente and the Saudi-Houthi peace.